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पिछले हफ़्ते North Korea और South Korea ने अपनी 68 साल पुरानी दुश्मनी को भूलकर एक दूसरे से हाथ मिलाया था. अब करीब एक हफ़्ते बाद इन दोनों देशों ने अपनी घड़ियां मिला ली हैं. North Korea और South Korea के रिश्तों वाली घड़ी 68 वर्षों से रुकी हुई थी. लेकिन, अब वक़्त बदल गया है. दीवार पर टंगी दो घड़ियों की ये तस्वीर 29 अप्रैल 2018 की है. ये उसी Peace House की तस्वीर है, जहां North Korea के सुप्रीम लीडर किम जोंग उन और South Korea के राष्ट्रपति Moon Jae-in की मुलाकात हुई थी. अगर आप दोनों घड़ियों को ध्यान से देखेंगे, तो ये पाएंगे, कि दोनों के समय में आधे घंटे का अंतर है.
बांई तरफ की घड़ी South Korea के मुताबिक 11 बजकर 45 मिनट का समय दिखा रही है. जबकि दांई तरफ की घड़ी में North Korea के मुताबिक 11 बजकर 15 मिनट का समय दिख रहा है. अब आधे घंटे के इस फर्क की वजह को समझिए. किम जोंग उन.. ने वर्ष 2015 में Pyongyang Time बनाया था. इसके तहत North Korea ने अपना मानक समय South Korea से 30 मिनट पीछे कर लिया था. यानी पिछले 3 वर्षों से North Korea का समय South Korea से आधे घंटे पीछे चल रहा था.
किम जोंग उन.. ने ये फैसला इसलिए लिया था, क्योंकि उपनिवेश काल से पहले North Korea का यही Time Zone, हुआ करता था. सन 1910 से लेकर 1945 तक North Korea पर जापान का शासन था. और उस वक्त जापान ने North Korea के Time को Tokyo के बराबर करने के लिए उसे आधा घंटा आगे कर दिया था. वर्ष 1945 में जापान के अधिकार क्षेत्र से बाहर आने के बावजूद, North Korea का Time Zone वर्ष 2015 तक नहीं बदला गया. फिर किम जोंग उन.. ने इस समय को अपने इतिहास के मुताबिक ठीक किया.
27 अप्रैल 2018 को जिस वक्त नॉर्थ और साउथ कोरिया के नेताओं की हंसती-मुस्कुराती तस्वीरें दुनिया देख रही थीं. उस वक्त किम जोंग उन थोड़े उदास थे. क्योंकि, जिस कमरे में बैठकर वो South Korea के राष्ट्रपति का इंतज़ार कर रहे थे, उसी कमरे की दीवार पर ये दोनों घड़ियां टंगी हुई थीं. Media रिपोर्ट्स के मुताबिक, किम जोंग उन ने उस दिन ये कहा था, कि दीवार पर टंगी हुई घड़ियों में Seoul Time और Pyongyang Time देखकर उन्हें बहुत पीड़ा हुई. और उसी वक्त उन्होंने ये फैसला किया, कि दोनों देशों के रिश्तों को मज़बूत करने के लिए, घड़ियों का समय मिलाना ज़रुरी है.
North Korea की आधिकारिक समाचार एजेंसी KCNA के मुताबिक, किम जोंग उन ने South Korea के Time Zone के हिसाब से वक्त मिलाने के लिए, अपने देश की घड़ियों को 30 मिनट आगे करने का फैसला लिया. वहां की संसद ने भी South Korea के Time Zone को अपनाने पर अपनी मंज़ूरी दे दी थी. और अब से कुछ देर पहले दोनों देशों की घड़ियों का वक्त एक जैसा हो गया है. North Korea का समय भारत के मुकाबले 3 घंटे आगे चलता है. इसलिए वहां पर तारीख बदल चुकी है, वहां पर 5 मई की तारीख शुरू हो चुकी है.
South Korea ने किम जोंग उन के इस फैसले की तारीफ की है और कहा है, कि इस प्रतीकात्मक कदम से दोनों देशों के रिश्ते और भी ज़्यादा मज़बूत होंगे. इसके लिए South Korea ने भी एक अहम फैसला लिया है. जिसके तहत, वो अपने सीमावर्ती इलाकों में North Korea के खिलाफ दुष्प्रचार के लिए इस्तेमाल किए जाने वाले Loudspeakers को हटा लेगा. इन दोनों ही देशों ने, Propaganda करने के लिए अपनी सरहदों पर सैकड़ों लाउडस्पीकर्स लगाए हुए हैं. लेकिन अब इस समस्या का समाधान भी निकाल लिया गया है.
“For South Korea, living with a nuclear-armed North Korea is much better than living without American troops,” said Shin Won-sik, a retired three-star South Korean general. “If they are gone, we will lose proof that the Americans will defend us. We will lose confidence that if war breaks out, we can win.”
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President Trump visiting American and Korean service members at Camp Humphreys, in South Korea, in November. Mr. Trump has openly questioned the merit of maintaining a costly military presence overseas. Credit Doug Mills/The New York Times
In Seoul, President Moon Jae-in moved quickly Friday to calm jitters, especially among older conservatives, who consider the American military presence a sacrosanct symbol of national security and are deeply skeptical of Mr. Kim’s intentions. Mr. Moon’s office said news that the White House was considering drawing down troops was “not true at all.”
“The Moon government doesn’t want the focus of public attention to move from the denuclearization of North Korea to the withdrawal of U.S. troops yet, which is such a political hot potato,” said Lee Byong-chul, senior fellow at the Institute for Peace and Cooperation in Seoul. “But if a peace treaty is signed, the U.S. troops are bound to peter out. Much of the reason they are staying here will be gone.”
Conservatives in South Korea bristle at such a possibility, arguing that a withdrawal would expose their country to potential foes far stronger than North Korea, like China and Japan, which have invaded numerous times over the centuries. South Koreans reacted to Washington’s past attempts to pull out troops with calls for arming the country with nuclear weapons of its own.
Although South Korea’s navy and air force are superior to the North’s, North Korea has a much bigger army, including stockpiles of chemical and nuclear weapons and huge batteries of artillery, rockets and missiles that could hit Seoul, a city of 10 million people.
For decades, the American military has protected South Korea and Japan under its nuclear umbrella, and it shares high-tech military surveillance and conducts annual joint war games preparing for any conflict.
For many in the region, giving up that protection is an unsettling prospect, even if peace comes to the peninsula.
“The reason foreign investors stay in South Korea, and its stock market doesn’t panic even when China’s military prowess grows and North Korea conducts its nuclear weapons, is because of the U.S. military presence here,” said Mr. Shin, who served as the South Korean military’s top operational strategist before he retired in 2015. “If they shake the alliance for the sake of denuclearizing North Korea, we will have an economic crisis before a security crisis.”
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Supporters of Mr. Trump in Seoul last year. For conservative South Koreans, the American military presence is a sacrosanct symbol of national security. Credit Jung Yeon-Je/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
Mr. Trump’s reported directive came as Seoul and Washington were negotiating to decide how much more South Korea should pay than the $800 million a year it is currently paying for the 28,500 United States troops here. Mr. Trump wants a bigger burden-sharing from Seoul, which has resisted.
Trump administration officials say a full troop withdrawal is unlikely. They say that rethinking the force’s size and configuration was overdue, and that they want to see if a smaller force can provide adequate security.
The fate of the American troops has become one of the most delicate points of discussion as the two Koreas, the United States and China engage in fast-paced diplomacy over how to end the North’s nuclear weapons program.
South Korean officials say that North Korea is not insisting on a pullout of American troops during the latest round of negotiations with Seoul and Washington. They say that they want the troops to stay as a regional stabilizer even if a peace treaty is signed.
In past negotiations, North Korean officials told their South Korean and American counterparts that they could support the United States military presence in South Korea if Washington and Pyongyang normalized ties and the troops served a “peacekeeping role” to prevent China from becoming a dominant military power in the region.
A troop withdrawal could send a bad signal to Japan, where about 50,000 American military service members are based, analysts said.
“Across the waters in Japan, I think it’s going to be read very, very poorly and really make the Japanese anxious about what exactly are the U.S. commitments” in the region, said Jeffrey Hornung, a political scientist at the RAND Corporation.
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A welcoming ceremony for Defense Secretary Jim Mattis in Seoul in October. The fate of American troops in South Korea has become one of the most delicate points of discussions as the two Koreas, the United States and China engage in fast-paced diplomacy over how to end the North’s nuclear weapons program. Credit Jung Yeon-Je/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
Under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Japan has stepped up its own show of military force, and Mr. Abe has sought to revise the pacifist clause in the country’s Constitution. On Thursday, he released a video message calling for amending it to make explicit the legality of the country’s Self-Defense Forces, as Japan’s military, which has about 225,000 active members, is known.
On Friday Mr. Abe’s office called American forces “essential” for the security of the region.
If Mr. Trump were to succeed in pulling troops from the Korean Peninsula, it could embolden Mr. Abe to push through a constitutional change while citing the reduced American military presence in the region.
The Japanese public has long opposed any constitutional change and on Thursday, thousands of people protested the idea in Tokyo. But recent polls show opinion is increasingly divided.
Ichiro Fujisaki, a former Japanese ambassador to Washington, struck a moderate tone.
He said that “the U.S. presence is more symbolic than really there to fight against North Korea,” given the strength of the South Korean military and the fact that North Korea’s missiles are a bigger threat than an actual invasion.
Mr. Fujisaki added that as long as the Trump administration consulted the Japanese and South Korean governments about its plans, “it’s not that big a concern.”
China has long wanted American troops to leave South Korea, and analysts there said a drawdown — or complete withdrawal — could drastically reshape the balance of power in the region.
“The end of American troops in South Korea may indicate the beginning of the dissolution of the U.S. alliance in the Asia-Pacific,” said Cheng Xiaohe, a professor of international relations at Renmin University in Beijing. “If the American alliance system was gone, China would be greatly relieved.”
For years, the American presence has been more important as a symbol of deterrence than as a fighting force. At their current levels, the troop numbers are down by about a third from the level in the 1990s.
As the South Koreans have become a premier fighting force — with their own special operations forces, the ability to oppose the North’s artillery along the Demilitarized Zone and now their own cyberforces — they have become less dependent on the United States. Most American troops have pulled back to well south of Seoul.
Since President George Bush removed tactical nuclear weapons from South Korea in the early 1990s, the nuclear deterrent against the North has been based far away, in missile silos on the continental United States, submarines in the Pacific or bombers based on Guam.
Mr. Trump is not the first president to push for troop reductions. Jimmy Carter ran for office on a promise to withdraw all ground combat forces, in part to protest South Korea’s autocratic government at the time. Resistance from the military and Congress stymied his efforts. In 2004, George W. Bush’s defense secretary, Donald H. Rumsfeld, shifted nearly 10,000 troops from South Korea to the Iraq war.
During the Obama administration, former officials said, the Pentagon was always reluctant to consider troop reductions or the suspension of joint military exercises when the White House talked about potential pathways to ridding North Korea of its weapons.
“It would be foolish to give any of that away early in discussions, given the long North Korean track record of breaking agreements,” said Christine Wormuth, a former top Defense Department policy official in the Obama administration.
Mr. Trump, however, has long argued that America’s military presence is not an asset but a liability — not just in South Korea but in Japan as well. As both countries became wealthy, he said, they should have taken on more of the burden for their defense. During the 2016 presidential campaign, he even suggested that the two nations acquire their own nuclear weapons so they did not have to depend on the American nuclear umbrella.
That’s false. Two were detained after President Trump took office.
President Trump in the Oval Office on Tuesday.CreditDoug Mills/The New York Times
As everybody is aware, the past Administration has long been asking for three hostages to be released from a North Korean Labor camp, but to no avail. Stay tuned!
Sarah Huckabee Sanders, the White House press secretary, suggested on Thursday afternoon that Mr. Trump was including Otto Warmbier among the three hostages the president had referred to in his Twitter post.
Ms. Sanders also said she “couldn’t confirm the validity” of reports about the hostages’ release. She was referring to a Thursday morning interview during which Rudolph W. Giuliani — who recently joined the president’s legal team — said three American hostages in North Korea would be released “today.”
Asked if Mr. Giuliani was authorized to discuss foreign policy on the Trump administration’s behalf, Ms. Sanders said: “Not that I’m aware of.”
Linda Qiu is a fact-check reporter, based in Washington. She came to the Times in 2017 from the fact-checking service PolitiFact.@ylindaqiu
“The more people heard it, the less effective it became,” one of Mr. Obama’s speechwriters, David Litt, said in an interview, “which is one reason there were fewer ‘Let me be clears’ in the second term.”
Mr. Trump is different from other presidents because he seems to enjoy speaking extemporaneously on matters of consequence, said Ms. Jamieson, who has written extensively about Mr. Trump’s talent for using blunt language to subvert political norms. That approach has lent itself to a collection of presidential favorites: In Trumpese, she said, “many people are saying” means “I wish many people were saying this because I want you to believe they are.” “People don’t know,” she said, likely means “I just found out,” and “believe me,” on some level, may signal “I have real doubts.”
Mr. Trump’s modern predecessors, she said, tended to adhere to a tightly scripted approach. For example, she had a hard time imagining President John F. Kennedy saying “we’ll see what happens” while negotiating his way through the Cuban missile crisis.
“The presidents wanted to ensure that they knew what outcomes could be achieved and that their rhetoric could help them achieve the outcome,” she said. With Mr. Trump, “the signaling function is being eroded,” meaning that even words uttered by a commander-in-chief have a way of losing their power if they’re said often enough.
Speechwriters have often sought to hammer out such crutches, aware that an audience’s eyes and ears begin to glaze over if subjected to a rhetorical overdose. (Easier said than done, of course, when a president delights in veering off script.)
“If you keep forcing the same phrases into people’s ears all the time, people start to wonder what you’re actually meaning,” Matt Latimer, a literary agent and former speechwriter for Mr. Bush, said in an interview. He said the danger in Mr. Trump’s tendency could be, “after a while it’s like, ‘He really doesn’t know what’s going to happen, does he?’”
Mr. Latimer said that while Mr. Trump enjoys a strong economy and policy victories, like tax cuts, aimed at his base, it’s probably easier for him to wax extemporaneously. For instance, of the impending deadline on negotiations with Iran, Mr. Trump twisted the phrase to suit his penchant for showmanship: “Nobody knows what I’m going to do on the 12th, although, Mr. President, you have a pretty good idea — but we’ll see,” he said during a meeting last week with President Emmanuel Macron of France.
But Mr. Latimer, who scripted a president through the Iraq war and a looming recession, said Mr. Trump’s laissez-faire attitude probably would not last as consequential negotiations advance: “Free styling only works when things are going pretty well.”
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